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Original Research Papers

Climate variability in Scandinavia for the past millennium simulated by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

Authors:

Isabelle Gouirand,

Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SE
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Anders Moberg ,

Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SE
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Eduardo Zorita

GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, DE
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Abstract

The atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G, run with solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing for the past millennium, is used to analyse winter and summer temperature variability in Scandinavia. Relationships with atmospheric circulation, North Atlantic SSTs and Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures are investigated at timescales longer and shorter than 10 yr. The simulated response to volcanic forcing is also analysed. Realistic relationships with the atmospheric circulation, with some deficiencies in summer, are found. High-frequency co-variations with SSTs and NH temperatures are too weak, but low-frequency co-variations with NH temperatures in winter are apparently too strong. The summer cooling response to volcanic forcing is realistic, but the expected winter warming is absent. The simulated long-term temperature evolution agrees broadly with proxy data. Combinations of several forcing factors can lead to decadal and multidecadal anomalies from the centennial trends. Decreased solar forcing can account for cold intervals in both summer and winter. A systematic negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase can explain the coldest winter temperatures during 1590–1650. Several strong volcanic forcing events can have contributed to a simultaneous summer cooling. Proxy data also indicate cold summers and winters, and a negative NAO in winter, in the same period.

How to Cite: Gouirand, I., Moberg, A. and Zorita, E., 2007. Climate variability in Scandinavia for the past millennium simulated by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 59(1), pp.30–49. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00207.x
  Published on 01 Jan 2007
 Accepted on 28 Aug 2006            Submitted on 15 Sep 2005

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