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    Original Research Papers

    Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach

    Authors:

    Joaquim G. Pinto ,

    Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
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    Christian P. Neuhaus,

    Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
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    Gregor C. Leckebusch,

    Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6.10, 12165 Berlin, DE
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    Mark Reyers,

    Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
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    Michael Kerschgens

    Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
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    Abstract

    A statistical—dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses.

    Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method’s functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

    How to Cite: Pinto, J.G., Neuhaus, C.P., Leckebusch, G.C., Reyers, M. and Kerschgens, M., 2010. Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 62(2), pp.188–201. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00424.x
      Published on 01 Jan 2010
    Peer Reviewed
     CC BY 4.0
     Accepted on 16 Nov 2009            Submitted on 9 Apr 2009

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