Start Submission Become a Reviewer

Reading: Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a...

Download

A- A+
Alt. Display

Original Research Papers

Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach

Authors:

Joaquim G. Pinto ,

Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
X close

Christian P. Neuhaus,

Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
X close

Gregor C. Leckebusch,

Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6.10, 12165 Berlin, DE
X close

Mark Reyers,

Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
X close

Michael Kerschgens

Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 13, 50923 Cologne, DE
X close

Abstract

A statistical—dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses.

Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method’s functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

How to Cite: Pinto, J.G., Neuhaus, C.P., Leckebusch, G.C., Reyers, M. and Kerschgens, M., 2010. Estimation of wind storm impacts overWestern Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical–dynamical downscaling approach. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 62(2), pp.188–201. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00424.x
  Published on 01 Jan 2010
 Accepted on 16 Nov 2009            Submitted on 9 Apr 2009

References

  1. Beersma , J. and Buishand , T . 2003 . Multi-site simulation of daily precipitation and temperature conditional on the atmospheric circulation . Climate Res . 25 , 121 – 133 .  

  2. Bengtsson , L. , Hodges , K. I. and Roeckner , E . 2006 . Storm tracks and climate change . J. Climate 19 , 3518 – 3543 .  

  3. Beniston , M. , Stephenson , D. B ., Christensen , O. B. , Ferro , C. A. T. , Frei , C. and co-authors. 2007. Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim. Change 81 , 71 – 95 .  

  4. Brasseur , O . 2001 . Development and application of a physical approach to estimating wind gusts . Mon. Wea. Rev . 129 , 5 – 25 .  

  5. Brücher , W. , Kessler , C. , Kerschgens , M. and Ebel , A . 2001 . Simulation of traffic-induced air pollution on regional to local scales . Atmos. Environ . 34 , 4675 – 4681 .  

  6. Christensen , J. H. , Hewitson , B. , Busuioc , A. , Chen , A. , Gao , X. and co-authors . 2007 . Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , K. B. Averyt , M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA , pp. 847 – 940 .  

  7. Della-Marta , P. M. , Mathis , H. , Frei , C. , Liniger , M. A. , Kleinn , J. and co-authors . 2009 . The return period of wind storms over Europe. Int. J. Climatol . 29 , 437 – 459 .  

  8. Della-Marta , P. M. and Pinto , J. G . 2009 . Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations . Geophys. Res. Lett . 36 , L14703 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038557 .  

  9. Deutsche Rück . 2005 . Sturmdokumentation 1997-2004, Publication of the Deutsche Rück Reinsurance Company . Düsseldorf, 180 pp. (in German, www.deutsche-rueck.de) .  

  10. Europäischer Wetterbericht. 1999 . published by the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst; http://www.digento.de/tite1/105694.html)  

  11. Fink , A. H. , Brücher , T. , Ermert , E. , Krüger , A. and Pinto , J. G . 2009 . The European Storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution and considerations with respect to climate change . Nat. Hazards Earth SysL Sci . 9 , 405 – 423 .  

  12. Fuentes , U. and Heimann D . 2000 . An improved statistical dynamical downscaling scheme and its application to the Alpine precipitation climatology . Theor AppL Climatol . 65 , 119 – 135 .  

  13. Goyette , S. , Brasseur , O. and Beniston , M . 2003 . Application of a new wind gust parameterisation: multiple scale studies performed with the Canadian regional climate model . J. Geophys. Res . 108 ( D13 ), 4374 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002646 .  

  14. Hartigan , J. A. and Wong , M. A . 1979 . A K-means clustering algorithm . Appl. Stat . 28 , 100 – 108 .  

  15. Heinemann , G. and Kerschgens , M . 2005 . Comparison of methods for area-averaging surface energy fluxes using high-resolution non-hydrostatic simulations . Int. J. Climatol . 25 , 153 – 167 .  

  16. Jacob , D. , Baring , L. , Christensen , O. B. , Christensen , J. H. , de Castro , M. and co-authors . 2007 . An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Clim. Change 81 , 31 – 52 .  

  17. Jungclaus , J. H. , Botzet , M. , Haak , H. , Keenlyside , N. , Luo , J. J. and co-authors . 2005 . Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J. Climate 19 , 3952 – 3972 .  

  18. Kistler , R. , Kalnay , E. , Collins , W. , Saha , S. , Woollen , J. and co-authors . 2001 . The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly-means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc . 82 , 247 – 267 .  

  19. Klawa , M. and Ulbrich , U . 2003 . A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany . Nat. Hazards Earth SysL Sci . 3 , 725 – 732 .  

  20. Lambert , S. J. and Fyfe , J. C . 2006 . Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise . Clim. Dyn . 26 , 713 – 728 .  

  21. Leckebusch , G. C. , Koffi , B. , Ulbrich , U. , Pinto , J. G. , Spangehl , T. and Zacharias , S . 2006 . Analysis of frequency and intensity of winter storm events in Europe on synoptic and regional scales from a multi-model perspective . Clim. Res . 31 , 59 – 74 .  

  22. Leckebusch , G. C. , Ulbrich , U. , Fröhlich , E. L. and Pinto , J. G . 2007 . Property loss potentials for European mid-latitude storms in a changing climate . Geophys. Res. Lett . 34 , L05703 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027663 .  

  23. Leckebusch , G. C. , Weimer , A. , Pinto , J. G. , Reyers , M. and Speth , P . 2008 . Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach . MeteoroL Z . 17 , 67 – 82 .  

  24. Liebwein , P . 2000 . Klassische und moderne Formen der Rückversicherung. Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft. Karlsruhe ISBN-13: 978-3884877944 (in German)  

  25. Meehl , G. A. , Stocker , T. F. , Collins , W. D. , Friedlingstein , P. , Gaye , A. T. and co-authors . 2007 . Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , K. B. Averyt , M. Tignor and H. L. Miller ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA , pp. 747 – 845 .  

  26. Munich Re 2002. Winterstorms in Europe (BI), Analysis of loss potentials. Publication of the Munich Re, Order Number: 302-03109 (in English, www.munichre.com).  

  27. Murray , R. J. and Simmonds , I . 1991 . A numerical scheme for tracking cyclone centres from digital data. Part I: development and operation of the scheme . Aust. Meteorol. Mag . 39 , 155 – 166 .  

  28. Nakiéenovié , N. , Alcamo , J. , Davis , G. , de Vries , B. , Fenhann , J. and co-authors . 2000 . IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios . Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA , 599 pp .  

  29. Pinto , J. G. , Spangehl , T. , Ulbrich , U. and Speth , P . 2005 . Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology . MeteoroL Z . 14 , 823 – 838 .  

  30. Pinto , J. G. , Fröhlich , E. L. , Leckebusch , G. C. and Ulbrich , U . 2007a . Changes in storm loss potentials over Europe under modified climate conditions in an ensemble of simulations of ECHAM5/MPI-0M1 . Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 7 , 165 – 175 .  

  31. Pinto , J. G. , Ulbrich , U. , Leckebusch , G. C. , Spangehl , T. , Reyers M. and Zacharias , S . 2007b . Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-0M1 GCM . Clim. Dyn . 29 , 195 – 210 .  

  32. Pinto , J. G. , Freund , E. and Axer , E . 2008 . Nordrhein-Westfalen: Stürme nehmen stark zu. Versicherungswirtschaft 63 , 106 – 109 (in German, www.vvw.de) .  

  33. Pinto , J. G. , Neuhaus , C. P. , Kruger , A. and Kerschgens , M . 2009a . Assessment of the wind gust estimates method in mesoscale modelling of storm events over West Germany . MeteoroL Z . 18 , 495 – 506 .  

  34. Pinto , J. G. , Zacharias , S. , Fink , A. H. , Leckebusch , G. C. and Ulbrich , U . 2009b . Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO . Clim. Dyn . 32 , 711 – 737 .  

  35. Preisendorfer , R. W ., 1988 . Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology and Oceanography . Elsvier, Amsterdam , 425 pp .  

  36. Raible , C. C . 2007 . On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40 . Geophys. Res. Lett . 34 , L07703 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029084  

  37. Raible , C. C. , Della-Marta , P. M. , Schwierz , C. , Wernli , H. and Blender , R . 2008 . Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: a comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses . Mon. Wea. Rev . 136 , 880 – 897 .  

  38. Roeckner , E. , Brokopf , R. , Esch , M. , Giorgetta , M. , Hagemann , S. and co-authors . 2006 . Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. J. Clim . 19 , 3771 – 3791 .  

  39. Shao , Y. , Sogalla , M. , Kerschgens , M. and Brücher , W . 2001 . Effects of land-surface heterogeneity upon surface fluxes and turbulent conditions . MeteoroL Atmos. Phys . 78 , 157 – 181 .  

  40. Sogalla , M. , Kruger , A. and Kerschgens , M . 2006 . Mesoscale modelling of interactions between rainfall and the land surface in West Africa . MeteoroL Atmos. Phys . 91 , 211 – 221 .  

  41. Stephenson , D. B. , Pavan , V , Collins , M. , Junge , M. M. , Quadrelli , R. and co-authors . 2006 . North Atlantic Oscillation response to transient greenhouse gas forcing and the impact on European winter climate: a CMIP2 multi-model assessment. Clim. Dyn . 27 , 401 – 420  

  42. Swiss Re . 2008 . Natur-und Man-made-Katastrophen im Jahr 2007: hohe Schäden in Europa . Sigma, Nr. 1/2008, Swiss Re publishing, Zurich (in German, http://www.swissre.com).  

  43. Ulbrich , U. , Fink , A. H. , Klawa , M. and Pinto , J. G . 2001 . Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999 . Weather 56 , 70 – 80 .  

  44. Ulbrich , U. , Leckebusch , G. C. and Pinto , J. G . 2009 . Cyclones in the present and future climate: a review . Theor AppL Climatol . 96 , 117 – 131 .  

  45. Uppala , S. M. , Kallberg , R , Hernandez , A. , Saarinen , S. , Fiorino , M. and co-authors . 2005 . The ERA-40 Reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 131 , 2961 – 3012 .  

comments powered by Disqus