• \
    Start Submission Become a Reviewer

    Reading: High-resolution regional simulation of last glacial maximum climate in Europe

    Download

     A- A+
    Alt. Display

    Original Research Papers

    High-resolution regional simulation of last glacial maximum climate in Europe

    Authors:

    Gustav Strandberg ,

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, SE
    X close

    Jenny Brandefelt,

    Department of Mechanics, Linn¢¥e Flow Centre, KTH, SE-10044 Stockholm, SE
    X close

    Erik Kjellström,

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, SE
    X close

    Benjamin Smith

    Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Lund University, Geocentrum II, SE-22362 Lund, SE
    X close

    Abstract

    Afully coupled atmosphere—ocean general circulationmodel is used to simulate climate conditions during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Forcing conditions include astronomical parameters, greenhouse gases, ice sheets and vegetation. A 50-yr period of the global simulation is dynamically downscaled to 50 km horizontal resolution over Europe with a regional climate model (RCM). A dynamic vegetation model is used to produce vegetation that is consistent with the climate simulated by the RCM. This vegetation is used in a final simulation with the RCM. The resulting climate is 5–10 °C colder than the recent past climate (representative of year 1990) over ice-free parts of Europe as an annual average; over the ice-sheet up to 40 °C colder in winter. The average model-proxy error is about the same for summer and winter, for pollen-based proxies. The RCM results are within (outside) the uncertainty limits for winter (summer). Sensitivity studies performed with the RCM indicate that the simulated climate is sensitive to changes in vegetation, whereas the location of the ice sheet only affects the climate around the ice sheet. The RCM-simulated interannual variability in near surface temperature is significantly larger at LGM than in the recent past climate.

    How to Cite: Strandberg, G., Brandefelt, J., Kjellström, E. and Smith, B., 2011. High-resolution regional simulation of last glacial maximum climate in Europe. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63(1), pp.107–125. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00485.x
    5
    Views
    1
    Downloads
    87
    Citations
      Published on 01 Jan 2011
    Peer Reviewed
     CC BY 4.0
     Accepted on 6 Sep 2010            Submitted on 26 Jan 2010

    References

    1. Allen , R. , Siegert , M. J. and Payne , A. J . 2008 . Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia — Part 2: A dataset of LGM precipitation/temperature relations derived from degree-day modelling of palaeo glaciers . Clim. Past . 4 , 249 – 263 .  

    2. Braconnot , P. , Otto-Bliesner , B. , Harrison , S. , Joussaume , S. , Peter-chmitt , J.-Y. and co-authors . 2007 . Results of PMIP2 coupled sim-ulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum. Part 1: Experiments and large-scale features. Clim. Past . 3 , 261 - 277 .  

    3. Brandefelt , J. and Otto-Bliesner , B . 2009 . Equilibration and variability in a Last Glacial Maximum Climate simulation with CCSM3 . Geophys. Res. Lett . 36 , L19712 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040364 .  

    4. CIIMAP . 1981 . Seasonal reconstructions of the Earth’s surface at the last glacial maximum. In: Map Chart Series MC-36 . Geological So-ciety of America, Boulder, Colorado.  

    5. Collins , W. D. , Bitz , C. M. , Blackmon , M. L. , Bonan , G. B. , Bretherton , C. S. and co-authors . 2006. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM3). J. Climate 19 , 2122-214 3 .  

    6. Cramer , W. , Bondeau , A. , Woodward , F. I. , Prentice , I. C. , Betts , R. A. and co-authors . 2001 . Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Global Change Biol . 7 , 357 - 373 .  

    7. Gritti , E. S. , Smith , B. and Sykes , M. T . 2006 . Vulnerability of Mediter-ranean basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species . J. Biogeogr 33 , 145 – 157 .  

    8. Harrison , S. P. and Prentice , I. C ., 2003 . Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations . Global Change Biol . 9 , 983 – 1004 .  

    9. Hickler , T. , Smith , B. , Sykes , M. T. , Davis , M. B. , Sugita , S. and co-authors . 2004 . Using a generalized vegetation model to simulate veg-etation dynamics in the western Great Lakes region, USA, under alternative disturbance regimes. Ecology 85 , 519 - 530 .  

    10. IPCC . 2001 . Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. In: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds J.T. Houghton , Y. Ding , D.J. Griggs , M. Noguer , P.J. van der Linden and co-authors) . Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA , 881.  

    11. Jahn , A. , Claussen , M. , Ganopolski , A. and Brovkin , V . 2005 . Quan-tifying the effect of vegetation dynamics on the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum . Clim. Past . 1 , 1 – 7 .  

    12. Jansen , E. , Overpeck , J. , Briffa , K. R. , Duplessy , J.-C. Joos , F. and co-authors . 2007 . Palaeoclimate. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth As-sessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis and co-authors) . Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA .  

    13. Jones , C. G. , Ullerstig , A. , Willén , U. and Hansson , U . 2004 . The Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA). Part I: Model climatology and performance characteristics for present climate over Europe . Ambio 33 , 199 – 210 .  

    14. Jost , A. , Lunt , D. , Kageyama , M. , Abe-Ouchi , A ., Peyron , O. and co-authors. 2005. High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maxi-mum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions? Clim. Dyn . 24 , 577 - 590 .  

    15. Joussaume , S. and Taylor , K. E . 1995 . Status of the Paleoclimate Mod-eling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). In: Proceedings of the 1st In-ternational AMIP Science Conference (ed. W.L. Gates ). Monterrey, California , USA , 15-19 May 1995 , 25 - 430 , WCRP-92 .  

    16. Kageyama , M. , Lame , A. , Abe-Ouchi , A. , Braconnot , R , Cortijo , E. and co-authors . 2006 . Last Glacial Maximum temperatures over the North Atlantic, Europe and western Siberia: a comparison between PMIP models, MARGO sea-surface temperatures and pollen-based reconstructions. Quat. Sci. Rev . 25 , 2082 - 2102 .  

    17. Kaplan , J.O. , Bigelow , N.H. , Prentice , LC. , Harrison , S.P. , Bartlein , P.J. and co-authors . 2003 . Climate change and Arctic ecosystems. 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. J. Geophys. Res . 108 , 8171 - 8187 .  

    18. Kim , S.-J. , Crowley , T. J. , Erickson , D. J. , Govindasamy , B. , Duffy , P. B. and co-authors . 2008 . High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum. Clim. Dyn . 31 , 1 - 16 .  

    19. Kjellstriim , E. , Barring , L. , Gollvilc , S. , Hansson , U. , Jones , C. and co-authors . 2005 . A 140-yr simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). In: Reports Meteorology and Climatology . Volume 108, SMHI, SE-60176 Norrkiiping, Sweden, 54 .  

    20. Kjellstriim , E. , Brandefelt , J. , Näslund , J .0., Smith, B., Strandberg, G. and co-authors. 2009. Climate conditions in Sweden in a 100,000 yr time perspective. Svensk Kiimbriinslehantering AB, report TR-09-04 , 139 .  

    21. Kjellstriim , E. , Brandefelt , J. , Näslund , J .0., Smith, B., Strand-berg, G. and co-authors. 2010. Simulated climate conditions in Fennoscandia during a MIS 3 stadial. Boreas 10 , https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1502-3885.2010.00143.x .  

    22. Kjellstriim , E. , Nikulin , G. , Hansson , U. , Strandberg , G. and Ullerstig , A . 2011 . 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations . Tellus 63A , 24 – 40 .  

    23. Koca , D. , Smith , B. and Sykes , M. T . 2006 . Modelling regional climate change effects on Swedish ecosystems . Clim. Change 78 , 381 – 406 .  

    24. Kuhlemann , J. , Rohling , E.J. , Krumrei , I. , Kubik , P. , Ivy-Ochs , S. and co-authors . 2008 . Regional synthesis of Mediterranean atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum. Science , 321 , 1338 - 1340 .  

    25. Lane , H. , Kageyama , M. , Salas-Melia , D. , Voldoire , A. , Riviere , G. and co-authors . 2009 . Northern hemisphere storm tracks during the last glacial maximum in the PMIP2 ocean-atmosphere coupled mod-els: energetic study, seasonal cycle, precipitation. Clim. Dyn ., 32 , 593 - 614 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0391-9 .  

    26. Lambeck , K . 2004 . Sea-level change through the last glacial cycle: geo-physical, glaciological and palaeogeographic consequences . Comptes Rendus Geoscience 336 , 677 – 689 .  

    27. MARGO Project Members . 2009 . Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum. Nat. Geosci . 2 , https://doi.org/10.1038/NGE0411 .  

    28. Mahowald , N. M. , Yoshioka , M. , Collins , W. D. , Conley , A. J. , Fillmore , D. W. and co-authors . 2006 . Climate response and radiative forcing from mineral aerosols during the last glacial maximum, pre-industrial, current and doubled-carbon dioxide climates. Geophys. Res. Lett . 33 , L20705 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026126 .  

    29. Mangerud , J. , Gosse , J. , Matiouchkov , A. and Dolvilc , T . 2008 . Glaciers in the polar Urals, Russia, were not much larger during the last global glacial maximum than today. Quat . Sci. Re v . 27 , 1047 – 1057 .  

    30. Miller , P. A. , Giesecke , T. , Hickler , T. , Bradshaw , R. H. W. , Smith , B. and co-authors . 2008 . Exploring climatic and biotic controls on Holocene vegetation change in Fennoscandia. J. Ecol . 96 , 247 - 259 .  

    31. Moberg , A. , Gouirand , I. , Wohlfarth , B. , Schoning , K. , Kjellstriim , E. and co-authors . 2006 . Climate in Sweden during the past millennium—evidence from proxy data, instrumental data and model simulations. Report TR-06-35, Svensk Kiimbriinslehantering AB , 87 .  

    32. Morales , P. , Sykes , M. T. , Prentice , I. C. , Smith , P. , Smith , B. and co-authors . 2005. Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes. Global Change Biol . 11 , 2211-223 3 .  

    33. Morales , P. , Hickler , T. , Rowell , D. R , Smith , B. and Sykes , M. T . 2007 . Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon bal-ance driven by Regional Climate Model output . Global Change Biol . 13 , 108 – 122 .  

    34. Otto-Bliesner , B. L. , Thomas , R. , Brady , E. C. , Ammann , C. , Kothavala , Z. and co-authors . 2006a. Climate sensitivity of moderate and low-resolution versions of CCSM3 to pre-industrial forcings. J. Climate 19 , 2567-258 3 .  

    35. Otto-Bliesner , B. L. , Brady , E. C. , Clauzet , G. , Thomas , R. , Levis , S. and co-authors . 2006b. Last glacial maximum and Holocene climate in CCSM3. J. Climate 19 , 2526-254 4 .  

    36. Otto-Bliesner , B. L. , Hewitt , C. D. , Marchitto , T. M. , Brady , E. , Abe-Ouchi , A. and co-authors . 2007 . Last Glacial Maximum ocean ther-mohaline circulation: PMIP2 model intercomparisons and data con-straints. Geophys. Res. Lett . 34 , L12706.  

    37. Otto-Bliesner , B. L. , Schneider , R. , Brady , E. C. , Kucera , M. , Abe-Ouchi , A. and co-authors . 2009 . A comparison of PMIP2 model sim-ulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum. Clim. Dyn . 32 , 799 - 815 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0509-0 .  

    38. Peltier , W. R . 1994 . Ice age paleotopography . Science 265 , 195 – 201 .  

    39. Peltier , W. R . 2004 . Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age circulation. Earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE, Annual Review of Earth Planet . Sciences 32 , 111 – 149 .  

    40. Pollard , D. and Barron , E. J . 2003 : Causes of model-data discrepancies in European climate during oxygen isotope stage 3 with insights from the last glacial maximum . Quat. Res . 59 , 108 – 113 .  

    41. Räisdnen , J. , Hansson , U. , Ullerstig , A. , Doscher , R. , Graham , L. P. and co-authors . 2003 . GCM driven simulations of recent and future climate with the Rossby Centre coupled atmosphere—Baltic Sea re-gional climate model RCAO. In: Reports Meteorology and Climatol-ogy . Volume 101, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76 Norrkoping, Sweden , 61 .  

    42. Räisdnen , J. , Hansson , U. , Ullerstig , A. , Doscher , R. , Graham , L. P. and co-authors . 2004 . European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Clim. Dyn . 22 , 13 - 31 .  

    43. Ramstein , G. , Kageyama , M. , Guiot , J. , Wu , H. , Hely , C. and co-authors . 2007 . How cold was Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum? A synthe-sis of the progress achieved since the first PMIP model-data compar-ison. Clim. Past . 3 , 331 - 339 .  

    44. Randall , D. A. , Wood , R. A. , Bony , S. , Colman , R. , Fichefet , T. and co-authors . 2007 . Climate models and their evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis and co-authors ). Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA .  

    45. Ray , N. and Adams , J. M . 2001 . A GIS-based Vegetation Map of the World at the Last Glacial Maximum (25,000-15,000 BP). Internet Archaeology 11. Available at: http://intarch.ac.uk/journal/issuell/rayadams_toc.html. Accessed 24 Sep 2010 .  

    46. Renssen , H. and Vandenberghe , J . 2003 . Investigation of the relationship between permafrost distribution in NW Europe and extensive winter sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic Ocean during the cold phases of the Last Glaciation. Quat . Sci. Re v . 22 , 209 – 233 .  

    47. Roche , D. M. , Dokken , T. M. , Goosse , H. , Renssen , H. and Weber , S. L . 2006 . Climate of the last glacial maximum: sensitivity studies and model-data comparison with the LOVECUM coupled model . Clim. Past. Discuss . 2 , 1105 – 1153 .  

    48. Rummulcainen , M . 2010 . State-of-the-art with regional climate mod-els . Wiley Interdisciplinary Rev.: Clim. Change , 1 , 82 – 96 , https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.8  

    49. Rummulcainen , M. , Räisdnen , J. , Ullerstig , A. , Bringfelt , B. , Hansson , U. and co-authors . 1998 . RCA—Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model: model description and results from the first multi-year simulation. In: Reports Meteorology and Climatology . Volume 83 , Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76 Norrkoping, Sweden, 76 .  

    50. Rummulcainen , M. , Räisdnen , J. , Bringfelt , B. , Ullerstig , A. , Omstedt , A. and co-authors . 2001 . A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations. Clim. Dyn . 17 , 339 - 359 .  

    51. Samuelsson , R , Jones , C. , Willen , U. , Gollvik , S. , Hansson , U. and co-authors . 2011 . The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: Model description and performance. Tellus 63A , 4 - 23 .  

    52. Sarnthein , M. , Pflaumann , U. and Weinelt , M . 2003 . Past extent of sea ice in the northern North Atlantic inferred from foraminiferal paleotemperature estimates . Paleoceanography 18 ( 2 ), 1047 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2002PA000771 .  

    53. Schneider von Deimling , T. , Ganopolslci , A. , Held , H. and Rahmstorf , S. , 2006. How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum. Geophys. Res. Lett ., 33 , L14709 , https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026484 .  

    54. Sitch , S. , Smith , B. , Prentice , I. C. , Arneth , A. , Bondeau , A. and co-authors . 2003 . Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Global Change Biol . 9 , 161 - 185 .  

    55. Sitch , S. , Brovkin , V. , von Bloh , W. , van Vuuren , D. , Eickhout , B. and co-authors . 2005 . Impacts of future land cover changes on atmo-spheric CO2 and climate. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 19 , GB2013-2027 .  

    56. Sitch , S. , Huntingford , C. , Gedney , N. , Levy , P. E. , Lomas , M. and co-authors . 2008 . Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dy-namic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biol . 14 , 2015 - 2039 .  

    57. Smith , B. , Prentice , I. C. and Sykes , M. T . 2001 . Representation of veg-etation dynamics in modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space . Global EcoL Biogeogr 10 , 621 – 637 .  

    58. Smith , B. , Knorr , W. , Widlowslci , J. L. , Pinty , B. and Gobron , N . 2008 . Combining remote sensing data with process modelling to moni-tor boreal conifer forest carbon balances . Forest EcoL Manage . 255 , 3985 – 3994 .  

    59. Smith , B. , Samuelsson , P. , Wramneby , A. and Rummukainen , R . 2011 . A model of the coupled dynamics of climate, vegetation and ecosys-tem biogeochemistry for regional applications . Tellus 63A , 87 – 106 .  

    60. Weber , S. L. , Drijfhout , S. S. , Abe-Ouchi , A. , Crucifix , M. , Eby , M. and co-authors . 2007 . The modern and glacial overturning circulation in the Atlantic ocean in PMIP coupled model simulations. Clim. Past . 3 , 51 - 64 .  

    61. Wolf , A. , Callaghan , T. V. and Larson , K . 2008 . Future changes in veg-etation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region . Clim. Change 87 , 51 – 73 .  

    62. Woodward , F. I. and Williams , B. G ., 1987 . Climate and plant distribution at global and local scales . Vegetation 69 , 189 – 197 .  

    63. Wu , H. , Guiot , J. , Brewer , S. and Guo , Z . 2007 . Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene: reconstruction from pollen data using inverse vegetation modeling . Clim. Dyn . 29 , 211 – 229 .  

    64. Wramneby , A. , Smith , B. , Zaehle , S. and Sykes , M. T . 2008 . Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes . EcoL Model . 216 , 277 – 290 .  

    65. Yurova , A. Y. and Lanlcreijer , H . 2007 . Carbon storage in the organic layers of boreal forest soils under various moisture conditions: a model study for Northern Sweden sites . EcoL Model . 204 , 475 – 484 .  

    66. Zaehle , S. , Sitch , S. , Prentice , I. C. , Liski , J. , Cramer , W. and co-authors . 2006. The importance of representing age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances. EcoL AppL 16 , 1555-157 4 .  

    Jump to Discussions Related content
    comments powered by Disqus