Berner , J. , Shuns , G. , Leutbecher , M. and Palmer , T . 2009 . A spectral stochastic kinetic energy bacicscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. J. Atmos. Sc i . 66 , 603 – 626 .
Berner , J. , Ha , S.-Y. , Hacker , J. R , Fournier , A. and Snyder , C . 2011 . Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction sys-tem: stochastic versus multi-physics representations. Mon. Wea. Rev . In press.
Bishop , C. H. Z. T . 1999 . Ensemble transformation and adaptive obser-vations. J. Atmos. Sc i . 56 , 1748 – 1765 .
Bowler , N. E. , Arribas , A. , Mylne , K. R. , Robertson , K. B. and Beare , S. E . 2008 . The MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 134 , 703 – 722 .
Brieglib , B. P . 1992 . Delta-Eddington approximation for solar radia-tion in the NCAR Community Climate Model . J. Geophys. Res . 97 , 7603 – 7612 .
Burgers , G. , VanLeeuwen , P. and Evensen , G . 1998 . Analysis scheme in the ensemble Kalman filter. Mon . Wea. Re v . 126 , 1719 – 1724 .
Clark , A. , Gallus Jr., W. A. and Chen , T.-C. 2008 . Contributions of mixed physics and perturbed lateral boundary conditions to the skill and spread of precipitation forecasts from a WRF ensemble. Mon. Wea . Rev.136,2140-2156.
Desroziers , G. , Berre , L. , Chapnilc , B. and Poli , P . 2005 . Diagnosis of observation, background and analysis-error statistics in observation space . Quart. J. R. Meteor Soc . 131 , 3385 – 3396 .
Eckel , F. A. and Mass , C. F . 2005 . Aspects of effective mesoscale, short-range, ensemble forecasting . Wea. Forecast . 20 , 328 – 350 .
Grell , G. A. and Devenyi , D . 2002 . A generalized approach to parame-terizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation tech-niques. Geophys. Res. Lett . 29 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015311 .
Grimit , E. P. and Mass , C. F . 2002 . Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest . Wea. Forecast . 17 , 192 – 205 .
Hacker , J. R , Snyder , C. , Ha , S.-Y. and Pocernich , M . 2011 . Linear and nonlinear response to parameter variations in a mesoscale model. Tellus 63A , this issue .
Hamill , T. M. , Snyder , C. and Morss , R. E . 2000 . A compar-ison of probabilistic forecasts from bred, singular-vector, and perturbed observation ensembles. Mon . Wea. Re v . 128 , 1835 – 1851 .
Hamill , T. M. , Whitaker , J. and Snyder , C . 2001 . Distance-dependent filtering of background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 2776 – 2790 .
Hou , D. , Kalnay , E. and Drogemeier , K . 2001 . Objective verification of the SAMEX ’98 ensemble experiments. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 73 – 91 .
Houtekamer , P. L. and Derome , J . 1995 . Methods for ensemble predic-tion. Mon . Wea. Re v . 123 , 2181 – 2196 .
Houtekamer , P. L. and Mitchell , H. L . 2001 . A sequential ensemble Kalman filter for atmospheric data assimilation. Mon . Wea. Re v . 129 , 123 – 137 .
Janjié , Z. I . 1994 . The step-mountain Eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon . Wea. Re v . 122 , 927 – 945 .
Janjié , Z. I . 2001 . Nonsingular implementation of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 scheme in the NCEP meso model, Technical Report 437, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Office Note.
Jolliffe , I. T. and Stephenson , D. B . 2003 . Forecast Verification: A Prac-titioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science Jolliffe , I. T and Stephenson , D. B. John Wiley and Sons , Chichester .
Lord , R. J. , Menzel , W. P. and Pecht , L. E . 1984 . ACARS wind measure-ments: an intercomparison with radiosonde, cloud motion, and VAS thermally derived winds . J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech . 1 , 131 – 137 .
Lorene , A. C . 2003 . The potential of the ensemble Kalman filter for NWP: a comparison with 4D-VAR . Quart. J. R. Meteor Soc . 129 , 3183 – 3203 .
Murphy , J. M. , Sexton , D. M. H. , Barnett , D. N. , Jones , G. S. , Webb , M. J. and co-authors . 2004 . Quantification of of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430 , 768 - 772 .
Parrish , D. E and Derber , J . 1992 . The National Meteorological Center’s spectral-statistical interpolation analysis system. Mon . Wea. Re v . 120 , 1747 – 1763 .
Raftery , A. E. , Gneiting , T ., Blabdaoui, E and Polakowski , M. 2005. Us-ing Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev . 133 , 1155-117 4 .
Santer , T. J. and Williams , B. J . 2003 . Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments Santet; T J . and Williams , B. J. Springer , New York .
Shuns , G. J . 2005 . A kinetic energy bacicscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems . Quart. J. R. Meteor. Soc . 612 , 3079 – 3102 .
Slcamarock , W. C. , Klemp , J. B. , Dudhia , J. , Gill , D. O. , Barker , D. M. and co-authors. 2008. A description of the advanced research WRF Version 3, Technical Report TN-475, National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Stainforth , D. A. , Aina , T. , Christensen , C. , Collins , M. , Faull , N. and co-authors . 2005 . Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433 , 403 - 406 .
Stensrud , D. , Bao , J.-W. and Warner , T. T . 2000 . Using initial condi-tion and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble sim-ulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon . Wea. Re v . 128 , 2077 – 2107 .
Stensrud , D. J. and Yussouf , N . 2003 . Short-range ensemble predictions of 2-m temperature and dewpoint temperature over New England. Mon . Wea. Re v . 131 , 2510 – 2524 .
Thompson , G. , Rasmussen , R. and Manning , K . 2006 . Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: description and sensitivity analysis. Mon . Wea. Re v . 132 , 519 – 542 .
Velden , C. S. , Hayden , C. M. , Nieman , S. J. , Menzel , W. R , Wanzong , S. and co-authors . 1997 . Upper-tropospheric winds derived from geo-stationary satellite water vapor imagery. Bull. Am. Meteor Soc . 78 , 173 - 195 .
Wang , X. and Bishop , C. H . 2003 . A comparison of breeding and en-semble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes. J. Atmos. Sc i . 60 , 1140 – 1158 .
Wang , X. , Bishop , C. H. and Julier , S. J . 2004 . Which is better, and ensemble of positive/negative pairs or a centered spherical simplex ensemble? Mon . Wea. Re v . 132 , 1590 – 1605 .
Wang , X. , Snyder , C. and Hamill , T. M . 2007 . On the theoretical equivalence of differently proposed ensemble/3D-Var hybrid analysis schemes. Mon . Wea. Re v . 135 , 222 – 227 .
Wang , X. , Barker , D. M. , Snyder , C. and Hamill , T. M . 2008a . A hybrid WRFVAR-ETKF data assimilation scheme for the WRF model. Part I: observing system simulation experiment. Mon . Wea. Re v . 136 , 5116 – 5131 .
Wang , X. , Barker , D. M. , Snyder , C. and Hamill , T. M . 2008b . A hybrid WRFVAR-ETKF data assimilation scheme for the WRF model. Part II: real observation experiments. Mon . Wea. Re v . 136 , 5132 – 5147 .
Wei , M. , Toth , Z. , Wobus , R. and Zhu , Y . 2008 . Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system . Tellus 60A , 62 – 79 .
Wilks , D. S . 2006 . Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Wilks, D. S . second edn Elsevier (London).
Ziehmann , C . 2000 . Comparison of a single-model EPS with a multi-model ensemble consisting of a few operational models . Tellus 52A , 280 – 299 .