Start Submission Become a Reviewer

Reading: Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm

Download

A- A+
Alt. Display

Original Research Papers

Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm

Authors:

Roel Stappers ,

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3732 GK De Bilt, NL
X close

Jan Barkmeijer

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3732 GK De Bilt, NL
X close

Abstract

We study the feasibility of using the singular vector technique to create initial condition perturbations for shortrange ensemble prediction systems (SREPS) focussing on predictability of severe local storms and in particular deep convection. For this a newfinal time semi-norm based on the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is introduced. We compare singular vectors using the CAPE-norm with SVs using the more common total energy (TE) norm for a 2-week summer period in 2007, which includes a case of mesoscale extreme rainfall in the south west of Finland. The CAPE singular vectors perturb the CAPE field by increasing the specific humidity and temperature of the parcel and increase the lapse rate above the parcel in the lower troposphere consistent with physical considerations. The CAPE-SVs are situated in the lower troposphere. This in contrast to TE-SVs with short optimization times which predominantly remain in the high troposphere. By examining the time evolution of the CAPE singular values we observe that the convective event in the south west of Finland is clearly associated with high CAPE singular values.

How to Cite: Stappers, R. and Barkmeijer, J., 2011. Properties of singular vectors using convective available potential energy as final time norm. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63(3), pp.373–384. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00501.x
6
Citations
  Published on 01 Jan 2011
 Accepted on 6 Dec 2010            Submitted on 25 Mar 2010

References

  1. Barkmeijer , J. , Buizza , R. , Palmer , T. N. , Pun , K. and Mahfouf , J.-F . 2001 . Tropical singular vectors computed with linearized diabatic physics . Q. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 127 , 685 – 708 .  

  2. Blanchard , D . 0. 1998 . Assessing the vertical distribution of convective available potential energy . Weather Forecast . 13 , 870 – 877 .  

  3. Doswell , C. A. HI 1987 . The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: a case study example . Weather Forecast . 2 , 3 – 16 .  

  4. Doswell , C. A. BI and Rasmussen , E. N. 1994. The effect of neglecting the virtual temperature correction on CAPE calculations. Weather Forecast . 9 , 625 - 629 .  

  5. Du , J. et al . 2009 . NCEP short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system upgrade in 2009. Preprints, 19th Conf on Numerical Weather Pre-diction and 23rd Conf on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha, Nebraska, Amer Meteor Soc . Weather and Forecasting paper 4A . 4 .  

  6. Errico , R. M. , Raeder , K. and Ehrendorfer , M . 2004 . Singular vec-tors for moisture-measuring norms . Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc . 130 , 963 – 988 .  

  7. Errico , R. M. , Raeder , K. D. and Fillion , L . 2003 . Examination of the sensitivity of forecast precipitation rates to possible perturbations of initial conditions . Tellus 55A , 88 – 105 .  

  8. Fillion , L. and Belair , S . 2004 . Tangent linear aspects of the Kain—Fritsch moist convective parameterization scheme. Mon . Weather Re v . 132 , 2477 – 2494 .  

  9. Hägel , E. and Horányi , A . 2007 . The ARPEGE/ALADIN limited area ensemble prediction system: the impact of global targeted singular vectors . Meteorol. Z . 16 , 653 – 663 .  

  10. Hohenegger , C. and Schär , C . 2007 . Atmospheric predictability at syn-optic versus cloud-resolving scales . Bull. Am. MeteoroL Soc . 88 , 1783 – 1793 .  

  11. Homar , V. , Stensrud , D. J. , Levit , J. J. and Bright , D. R . 2006 . Value of human-generated perturbations in short-range ensemble forecasts of severe weather . Weather Forecast . 21 , 347 – 363 .  

  12. Iversen , T. , Frogner , I.-L. , Sattler , K. , Ivatek-Sahdan , S. , Barkmeijer , J. and co-authors . 2007 . Glameps—the Hirlam/Aladin grand limited area model ensemble prediction system. ECMWF Workshop on En-semble Prediction, 7-9 November 2007 , 95 - 106 , ECMWF .  

  13. Janisková , M . 2003 . Physical processes in adjoint models: potential pitfalls and benefits. In Proceedings of the ECMWF Seminar on Recent Developments in Data Assimilation for Atmosphere and Ocean, 179-192, Reading, UK, ECMWF .  

  14. Janisková , M. , Thepaut , J. N. and Geleyn , J. F . 1999 . Simplified and regular physical parameterizations for incremental four-dimensional variational assimilation. Mon . Weather Re v . 127 , 26 – 45 .  

  15. Johns , R. H. and Doswell , C. A. DI 1992 . Severe local storms forecasting . Weather Forecast . 7 , 588 – 612 .  

  16. Leutbecher , M. and Palmer , T. N . 2008 . Ensemble forecasting . J. Com-put. Phys . 227 , 3515 – 3539 .  

  17. Mahfouf , J.-F. and Bilodeau , B . 2007 . Adjoint sensitivity of surface precipitation to initial conditions. Mon . Weather Re v . 135 , 2879 – 2896 .  

  18. Palmer , T. N. , Gelaro , R. , Barkmeijer , J. and Buizza , R . 1998 . Sin-gular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sc i . 55 , 633 – 653 .  

  19. Peppler , R. A . 1988 . A review of static stability indices and related thermodynamic parameters . Illinois State Water Survey Misc. Publ 104 .  

  20. Schultz , D. M. and Schumacher , P. N . 1999 . The use and misuse of con-ditional symmetric instability. Mon . Weather Re v . 127 , 2709 – 2732 .  

  21. Stensrud , D. J. , Bao , J. W. and Warner , T. T . 2000 . Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon . Weather Re v . 128 , 2077 – 2107 .  

  22. Unden , P. , et al. 2002 . HIRLAM-5 scientific documentation . SMHI Norrkoping , Sweden .  

  23. Vukiéevié , T. and Errico , R. M . 1993 . Linearization and adjoint of pa-rameterized moist diabatic processes . Tellus 45A , 493 – 510 .  

  24. Xu , M. , Stensrud , D. J. , Bao , J. W. and Warner , T.T . 2001 . Applications of the adjoint technique to short-range ensemble forecasting of mesoscale convective systems. Mon . Weather Re v . 129 , 1395 – 1418 .  

  25. Yang , X . 2005 . Analysis blending using spatial filter in grid-point model coupling . Hirlam Newslett . 48 , 49 – 55 .  

comments powered by Disqus