Start Submission Become a Reviewer

Reading: Hurricane forecasts using a suite of large-scale models

Download

A- A+
Alt. Display

Original Research Papers

Hurricane forecasts using a suite of large-scale models

Authors:

T. N. Krishnamurti ,

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520, US
X close

Mrinal K. Biswas,

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520, US
X close

Brian P. MacKey,

Weather Predict Inc, Raleigh, NC, US
X close

Robert G. Ellingson,

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520, US
X close

Paul H. Ruscher

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4520, US
X close

Abstract

This paper provides an account of the performance of a multimodel ensemble for real time forecasts of Atlantic tropical cyclones during 2004, 2005 and 2006. The Florida State University (FSU) superensemble is based on a suite of model forecasts and the interpolated official forecast that were received in real time at the National Hurricane Center. The FSU superensemble is a multimodel ensemble that utilizes forecasts from the member models by removing their individual biases based on a recent past history of their performances. This superensemble carries separate statistical weights for track and intensity forecasts for every 6 h of the member model forecasts.

The real time results from 2004 show an improvement up to 15% for track forecasts and up to 11% for intensity forecasts for the superensemble compared to other models and consensus aids. During 2005, the superensemble intensity performance was best for most lead times. The consistency of the superensemble forecasts of track are also illustrated for several storms of 2004 season. The superensemble methodology produced impressive intensity forecasts for Rita and Wilma during 2005. The study shows the capability of the superensemble in predicting rapidly intensifying storms when most member models failed to capture their strengthening.

How to Cite: Krishnamurti, T.N., Biswas, M.K., MacKey, B.P., Ellingson, R.G. and Ruscher, P.H., 2011. Hurricane forecasts using a suite of large-scale models. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63(4), pp.727–745. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00519.x
3
Views
11
Citations
  Published on 01 Jan 2011
 Accepted on 24 Jan 2011            Submitted on 12 Jun 2010

References

  1. Bengtsson , L. , Botzet , M. and Esch , M . 1995 . Hurricane type vortices in a general circulation model . Tellus 47A , 175 – 196 .  

  2. Buizza , R. , Houtekamer , P. L. , Toth , Z. , Pellerin , G. , Wei , M. and co-authors . 2005 . A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev . 133 , 1076 - 1097 .  

  3. Cane , D. and Milelli , M . 2006 . Weather forecasts obtained with a mul-timodel superensemble technique in a complex orography region . Meteorol. Z . 15 , 207 – 214 .  

  4. Cartwright , T. J . 2004 . Warm season mesoscale superensemble pre-cipitation forecasts . Ph.D. Dissertation, The Florida State Univer-sity, Tallahassee, FL, 104 pp. Available at: http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-10252004-132554/. Last accessed Mar 2011 .  

  5. Chakraborty , A. and Krishnamurti , T. N . 2006 . Improved seasonal cli-mate forecasts of the south Asian summer monsoon using a suite of 13 coupled ocean—atmosphere models. Mon . Wea. Re v . 134 , 1697 – 1721 .  

  6. Chakraborty , A. , Krishnamurti , T. N. and Gnanaseelan , C . 2007 . Predic-tion of the Diurnal Cycle Using a Multimodel Superensemble. Part II: clouds. Mon . Wea. Re v . 135 , 4097 – 4116 .  

  7. Cullen , M. J. P . 1993 . The Unified Forecast/Climate Model . Meteor Mag . 122 , 81 – 94 .  

  8. Franklin , J . 2005a. 2004 National Hurricane Center Fore-cast Verification Report. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfsNerification_2004.pdf. . Last accessed Mar 2011.  

  9. Franklin , J . 2005b. 2004 NHC verification report, 59th Inter-departmental Hurricane Conference, Jacksonville, FL. Available at: http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc05/1inlcing_file_ihc05.htm. Last accessed Oct 2008 .  

  10. Franklin , J . 2006 . 2005 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verifi-cation Report. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfsNerification_2005.pdf. Last accessed Mar 2011 .  

  11. Franklin , J . 2009 . 2008 National Hurricane Center Fore-cast Verification Report. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfsNerification_2008.pdf. Last accessed Mar 2011 .  

  12. Goerss , J. S. and Jeffries , R. A . 1994 . Assimilation of synthetic tropical cyclone observations into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System . Wea. Forecast . 9 , 557 – 576 .  

  13. Goerss , J. S . 2000 . Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon . Wea. Re v . 128 , 1187 – 1193 .  

  14. Goerss , J. S. , Sampson , C. R. and Gross , J. M . 2004 . A History of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Skill . Wea. Forecast . 19 , 633 – 638 .  

  15. Heming , J. , Chan , J. and Radford , A . 1995 . A new scheme for the initilisation of the tropical cyclones in the UK Meteorological Office global model . MeteoroL AppL 2 , 171 – 184 .  

  16. Hogan , T. and Rosmond , T . 1991 . The description of the Navy Opera-tional Global Atmospheric prediction systems spectral forecast model. Mon . Wea. Re v . 119 , 1786 – 1815 .  

  17. Houze R. A. , Chen , S. S. , Smull , B. E , Lee , W-C. and Bell , M. M . 2007 . Hurricane intensity and eyewall replacement . Science 315 , 1235 – 1239 .  

  18. Järvinen , B. R. , Neumann , C. J. and Davis , M. A. S . 1984 . A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Technical Memorandum, NVVS NHC 22, Coral Gables, Florida, 21 pp .  

  19. Knabb , R. D. , Rhome , J. R. and Brown , D. P . 2006a. Tropical cy-clone report, Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/T’CR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf . Last ac-cessed Mar 2011.  

  20. Knabb , R. D. , Rhome , J. R. and Brown , D. P . 2006b. Tropical cy-clone report, Hurricane Rita, 18-26 September 2005. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/T’CR-AL182005_Rita.pdf . Last ac-cessed Mar 2011 .  

  21. Krishnamurti , T. N. , Surendran , S. , Shin , D. W. , Torres , R. C. , Vijaya Kumar , T. S. V. and co-authors . 2001. Real-Time multianalysis-multimodel superensemble forecasts of precipitation using TRMM and ssmn Products. Mon. Wea. Rev . 129 , 2861-288 3 .  

  22. Krishnamurti T. N. , Kishtawal , C. M. , LaRow , T. , Bachiochi , D. , Zhang , Z. and co-authors . 1999. Improved skills for weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble. Science 285 , 1548-155 0 .  

  23. Krishnamurti , T. N. , Kishtawal , C. M. , LaRow , T. , Bachiochi , D. , Zhang , Z. , and co-authors . 2000 . Multimodel superensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate 13 , 4196 - 4216 .  

  24. Krishnamurti , T. N. , Pattnaik , S. , Biswas , M. K. , Kramer , M. , Bensman , Ed and co-authors . 2010 . Hurricane forecasts with a mesoscale suite of models. Tellus A 62A , 633 - 646 .  

  25. Kumar , T. S. V. , Krishnamurti , T. N. , Fiorino , M. and Nagata , M . 2003 . Multimodel superensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Pacific. Mon . Wea. Re v . 131 , 574 – 583 .  

  26. Kurihara , Y. , Bender , M. and Ross , R . 1993 . An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification. Mon . Wea. Re v . 121 , 2030 – 2045 .  

  27. Kurihara , Y. , Bender , M. , Tuleya , R. and Ross , R . 1995 . Improve-ments in the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Mon . Wea. Re v . 123 , 2791 – 2801 .  

  28. Kurihara , Y. , Tuleya , R. and Bender , M . 1998 . The GFDL hurricane prediction system and its performance in 1995 hurricane season. Mon . Wea. Re v . 126 , 1306 – 1322 .  

  29. Molteni , R. , Buizza , Palmer, T. N. and Petroliagis , T. 1996 . The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc . 122 , 73 - 120 .  

  30. Park , K. , Zou , X. and Li , G . 2009 . A numerical study on rapid intensi-fication of Hurricane Charley (2004) near landfall. Front. Earth Sci. China 3 , https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-009-0048-y .  

  31. Pasch , R. J. , Blake , E. S. , Cobb , H. D. and Roberts , D. V . 2006 . Tropical cyclone report, Hurricane Wilma, 15-25 October 2005. Available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/T’CR-AL252005_Wilma.pdf. Last accessed Mar 2011 .  

  32. Raftery , A. E. , Balabdaoui , F. , Gneiting , T. and Polalcowski , M . 2003 . Us-ing Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Tech. Rep. No. 440, Dept. of Stat., University of Washington, 32 pp .  

  33. Rhome , J. R . 2007 . Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and intensity Models. Available at: http://www.nhc. noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml. Last accessed Mar 2011 .  

  34. Sampson , Goerss, J. S. and Schrader , A. J. 2005 . A consensus track forecasts for southern hemisphere tropical cyclones. Aust. Met. Mag . 54 , 115 - 119 .  

  35. Sampson , C. R. , Franklin , J. L. , Knaff , J. A. and DeMaria , M . 2008 . Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus . Wea. Forecast . 23 , 304 – 312 .  

  36. Stefanova , L. and Krisnamurti , T. N . 2002 . Interpretation of seasonal climate forecast using Brier skill score, the Florida State University superensemble, and the AMIP-I dataset . J. Clim . 15 , 534 – 544 .  

  37. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E . 1993 . Ensemble forecasting at NMC: the generation of perturbations . Bull. Amer Meteor. Soc . 74 , 2317 – 2330 .  

  38. Toth , Z. and Kalnay , E . 1997 . Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon . Wea. Re v . 125 , 3297 – 3319 .  

  39. Vialard , J. , Vitart , F. , Balmaseda , M. A. , Stockdale , T. N. and Anderson , D. L. T . 2005 . An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecast-ing with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Mon . Wea. Re v . 133 , 441 – 453 .  

  40. Williford , C. E. , Krishnamurti , T. N. , Torres , R. C. , Cocke , S. , Chris-tidis , Z. and co-authors . 2003 . Real-time multimodel superensemble forecasts of Atlantic tropical systems of 1999 . Mon. Wea. Rev . 131 , 1878– 1894 .  

comments powered by Disqus