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Original Research Papers

Evaluation of a dynamic downscaling of precipitation over the Norwegian mainland

Authors:

E. Orskaug ,

Norwegian Computing Center, Gaustadallen 23, PO Box 114, Blindern, 0314 Oslo, NO
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I. Scheel,

Department of Mathematics, University of Oslo, PO Box 1053, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, NO
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A. Frigessi,

Norwegian Computing Center, Gaustadallen 23, PO Box 114, Blindern, 0314 Oslo; Department of Biostatistics, University of Oslo, PO Box 1122, Blindern, 0317 Oslo, NO
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P. Guttorp,

Norwegian Computing Center, Gaustadallen 23, PO Box 114, Blindern, 0314 Oslo, NO; Department of Statistics, Box 354322, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-4322, US
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J. E. Haugen,

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, NO
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O. E. Tveito,

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, PO Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, NO
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O. Haug

Norwegian Computing Center, Gaustadallen 23, PO Box 114, Blindern, 0314 Oslo, NO
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Abstract

In order to assess the potential of regional climate models to be used to project future weather events, a first step is to study the regional model forced by actual weather, or more precisely by reanalysis of weather data. In this paper we investigate how well the Norwegian regional model HIRHAM, forced by ERA-40 reanalysis data, compares to observed precipitation data from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute over Norwegian mainland. This paper aims to show how standard methods of statistical testing may be used to assess dynamic downscaling. Methods considered are the Kolmogorov—Smirnov two-sample test, a Fisher exact test for equality of quantiles, an Extreme Value Theory test, where equality of the 1-yr return levels are tested, and equality of wet-day frequency. All tests are performed seasonally. The regional model is skillful in describing the lower quartile of the precipitation distribution, but underestimates higher levels of precipitation. Our results indicate that the regional model has too many but too small rain events for all seasons

How to Cite: Orskaug, E., Scheel, I., Frigessi, A., Guttorp, P., Haugen, J.E., Tveito, O.E. and Haug, O., 2011. Evaluation of a dynamic downscaling of precipitation over the Norwegian mainland. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 63(4), pp.746–756. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2011.00525.x
20
Citations
  Published on 01 Jan 2011
 Accepted on 3 Mar 2011            Submitted on 12 Nov 2010

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