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Original Research Papers

The atmospheric response to North Atlantic SST anomalies in seasonal prediction experiments

Authors:

Hai Lin ,

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montréal, Québec H3A 2K6, CA
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Jacques Derome

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montréal, Québec H3A 2K6, CA
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Abstract

Seasonal forecasts performed over a 26 yr period as part of the Historical Seasonal Forecasting Project (HFP) are used to analyze the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation, its seasonality, and model dependence. The signals related to the El Nino events are first removed from both the SST and the atmospheric data. The North Atlantic SST and the ensemble mean forecast are then correlated over the 26 yr to identify the model response to the SST forcing. The signal-to-noise ratio shows that in spring there is a significant forecast signal that is related to the SST anomaly in the North Atlantic. In that season the two models used in the HFP yield responses to the SST anomaly that are both similar to each other and to the observed response. For the other seasons the agreement between the responses and the observed atmospheric anomalies is poor. In winter the response is very sensitive to the model used.

How to Cite: Lin, H. and Derome, J., 2003. The atmospheric response to North Atlantic SST anomalies in seasonal prediction experiments. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 55(3), pp.193–207. DOI: http://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v55i3.12092
  Published on 01 Jan 2003
 Accepted on 26 Sep 2002            Submitted on 4 Dec 2001

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